How the gender self-ID ‘disaster’ could get worse for the SNP (2025)

TThe SNP must drop gender self-identification policies or face “disaster” at the 2026 Scottish election, leader John Swinney has been warned.

The First Minister is facing calls to make clear that the plan pushed by his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon, to make self-ID easier for transgender people is now dead.

Swinney has also been urged to overhaul Scottish Government guidance, which has allowed transgender people to self-identify in order to access single-sex spaces such as women’s toilets and changing rooms.

Failing to make a clean break with Sturgeon on the issue could prove “hugely dangerous” going into next year’s election, pollsters, political pundits and SNP sources told The i Paper.

It follows the landmark judgement by the Supreme Court, which found that protections for women in the 2010 Equality Act are meant for those born biologically female.

The case initially revolved around a challenge by For Women Scotland against the Scottish Government’s policy of including trans people in gender quotas – but widened to encompass the legal definition of a woman.

Swinney, who recently said he did not regret backing Sturgeon’s self-ID bill, said on Wednesday that he “accepts” the Supreme Court judgement.

However, the First Minister said he would have to take time to consider how this would impact the public guidance on gender issued by his ministers.

‘Voters aren’t concerned with gender ideology’

The issue has proved toxic for the SNP since Sturgeon passed legislation at Holyrood in December 2022 to make it easier for people to get a gender recognition certificate (GRC).

A YouGov poll found that 66 per cent of Scottish voters opposed the bill when it was approved by MSPS. The then-Conservative UK Government blocked the legislation, arguing that it interfered with reserved Westminster powers.

SNP MSP Michelle Thompson, a leading supporter of Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, who made clear she was against the self-ID legislation, told The i Paper that the Swinney Government “must now drop self-ID entirely.”

Thompson also called for a review not only of gender guidance for public bodies in Scotland but also of the “culture that was allowed to develop that saw the existing rights of women cast aside.”

Thompson warned the party would be out of step with voters if it did not change course. She said polling showed most voters “are concerned about the cost of living crisis and the NHS … not gender ideology.”

SNP MSP Fergus Ewing, another Forbes ally, said Swinney should order NHS and other public bodies to provide women-only changing facilities. “A little humility – and an apology to women – would be the right thing to do,” he added. “That’s what you do when proven to have been wrong.”

A SNP source warned Swinney that failing to change course now would be a “disaster” for the SNP – hurting its chances of winning the 2026 Holyrood election and its attempts to revive the Scottish independence cause.

“It’s been very damaging,” they said. “Anyone trying to reintroduce self-ID, either by the front door or the back door, will be in a lonely position.”

They added: “The problem is you can’t get independence without widespread support. It would reduce the chances [of support] if certain groups of people thought this kind of ill-thought-out legislation would be typical in an independent Scotland.”

Swinney’s Sturgeon problem

Prof James Mitchell, Edinburgh University’s professor of public policy, said the Supreme Court verdict had again drawn attention to the SNP position being “very much out of step with majority opinion”.

Prof Mitchell said the issue would not “quietly disappear” and would remain a major headache for Swinney.

One challenge was keeping Forbes onside. The expert also warned that the SNP leader will be asked for his views on any new gender policies introduced by public bodies and independent services.

“He faces the dilemma of deciding whether to take sides with Sturgeon and most of the Cabinet, who consist of Sturgeon appointees who remain loyal to her, or with Kate Forbes.”

Andy Maciver, the Scottish Conservative’s former communications chief, said some Sturgeon loyalists inside the SNP “fundamentally” believed in the gender self-ID legislation.

Given his recent comments, Maciver also said it was unlikely that Swinney would ever say he regretted his support for Sturgeon’s self-ID policy. But the SNP leader can at least change Government guidance and abide by the Supreme Court’s decision, he said.

“It’s clear they [the SNP] have been on the wrong side of political opinion on this, and they’re now on the wrong side of legal opinion,” said Maciver, co-founder of the Message Matters PR consultancy.

“If Swinney was seen to double down on the Sturgeon approach, it would be highly dangerous. It would be a political problem going into the election. For that reason, I don’t he will [double down on the Sturgeon approach].”

Pollster Mark Diffley, founder of The Diffley Partnership, added: “There are dangers for John Swinney if he doubles down [on gender self-ID].

“He will be trying to keep this issue out of the election because there is no good outcome for them on it.”

Diffley said independence polling was so stable – with roughly 50 per cent of Scottish voters in favour and 50 per cent against it – that gender reform policy was not likely to change any views. “Even if it causes the SNP difficulty, I don’t see it having a direct impact [on independence support].”

Former SNP MP Joanna Cherry called on Sturgeon to apologise for her stance. She also urged Swinney to “step up to the plate” and make sure guidance across the public sector was “re-written”.

Writing for The i Paper, Scottish Greens activist Ellie Gomersall, a trans woman, said she was “deeply worried” by the Supreme Court’s judgment.

Helen Belcher, chair of TransActual, called on Swinney to appeal the “clearly biased ruling” and urged the UK and Scottish Government’s to develop a new approach to equalities law.

SNP Finance Secretary Shona Robison said the Scottish government “has no intention of bringing that [self-ID legislation] back.” She suggested the Scottish Government wait for the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) to develop new, UK-wide guidance before making any changes.

However, the Equality and Human Rights Commission has said it will not offer its updated guidance for all services, including the NHS and prisons, until the summer.

A Scottish Government spokesperson said Swinney’s ministers have now written to the UK Government to seek “an urgent meeting to discuss the implications of the judgment”. Scottish ministers will also meet with the EHRC next week.

“We will continue to engage with the EHRC and other stakeholders and are fully committed to protecting everyone’s rights and ensuring that Scotland remains an inclusive country.”